Economic Data News Analysis

A view from the indexes

Business Confidence Index. The Philippines dropped 9.4 points from, 51.30 in 4Q15 to 41.90 in 1Q16. The annual average for business confidence in the Philippines, 2001-16, was 27.27. All time high, 54.90 (2Q13); all-time low, -32.60 (4Q01). Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Leading Economic Index. A drop to 0.03 index points in 1Q14 from 0.14 in 4Q13. The Philippines annual average for this metric, 1983-2014, was -0.02. All-time high, 0.64 (1Q08); all-time low, -0.62 (3Q09). Source: National Statistical Coordination Board.

Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI increased to 142.85 in April from 142.60 in March. The Philippines annual average for this metric, 1957-2016, is 43.08 index points. All-time high, 142.90, Jan. 2016; all-time low, 1.30 Feb. 1957. Source: Philippines National Statistics Office.

Consumer Spending (CS). Consumer spending increased to PHP1342297 million in 4Q15 from PHP1321980 million in 3Q15. CS, 1998-2015, averaged PHP 893922.60. All-time high, 1Q15, PHP1342297 million on 4Q15; all-time low, 1Q98, PHP581457 million. Source: National Statistical Coordination Board.

Food Inflation. Food costs in the Philippines went up by 1.60% in April of 2016 over April 2015. Average annual food Inflation in the Philippines, 1885-2016, is 5.15%. All-time high, Jul. 2008, 7.29%; all-time low, Nov. 1999, -0.78%. Source: Philippines National Statistics Office.

Labour Force Participation Rate. At 63.30% foe 1Q16, the rate remained unchanged from 4Q15. Annual average for the metric, 1990-2016, is 65.81%. All-time high, 1Q93, is 94.70%, all-time  low, 3Q15, 62.90%. Source: Philippines National Statistics Office.

Philippines Unemployment Rate. 5.8% (2.469 million) recorded in 1Q16 – a drop from 6.6% in 12 months. The annual average rate, 1994-2016, 8.75%. All-time high, 1Q00, 13.9%; all-time low, 4Q15, 5.7%. Source: Philippines National Statistics Office.

Volume of Production Index (VoPI). VoPI (selected industries) grew by 7.8% in March – a 3.4% slowdown from February and a 7.1% growth drop from Feb. 2015. However, the Value of Production Index (VaPI) posted 1.9% growth in March: in Feb. it had registered a decline of 5.6%. VaPI 1Q16 growth was helped by rising manufactured goods output: chemical products, food, and electrical and non-electrical machinery among them. Food: +15.3% VoPI; +16.3% VaPI. Tobacco rose to 82.6% by both metrics. March losers were petroleum and leather products, both posting double-digit declines. Philippine Statistics Authority.

Balance of Trade (BOT). A US$1.1 billion trade gap in Feb., up from US$0.84 billion, 12 months earlier, marked an 11 consecutive-month downturn and the fastest pace of decline since Nov. ‘15. YoY exports fell by 4.5% to US$4.31 billion on the back of a 3.9% drop in Jan. Imports rose 1.2% to US$4.41 billion (see main article, this page). Source: Philippines National Statistics Office.

Capital Flows. A US$7.89 million capital flows surplus was entered into the Philippines capital and financial account in Dec. 2015. Average annual flows for the Philippine, 2005-2015, US$8.22 million. All-time high, Jan. 2006, US$93.66 million; all-time low, Jun. 2007, -US$35.31 million. Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). FDI inflows rose by PHP138,618 million in 4Q15. Annual av. Inflow, 2005-25, PHP41129.66 million.  All-time high, 4Q12, PHP230215 million; all-time, 1Q09, PHP3959 million. Source: National Statistical Coordination Board.

Tourist arrivals. Tourist Arrivals rose to 549,725 in Feb., up by 7,467 from Jan. Annual average, 1991-2016, 222,622.29. All-time high, Dec. 2015, 553,002; all-time low, Feb. 1991, of 63,628. Source: National Statistical Coordination Board.

Global Competitiveness Index. The Philippines recorded its worst ever performance in the Forum’s 2015-2016 report. With just 47 points it sank well below its annual rankings average, 2007-16, of 69.70. All-time high, 87 (2010). Source: World Economic Forum.

Ease of Doing Business Index. For the Philippines, an all-time best score of 103 in 2015, up from 97 in 2014. The annual average for this metric in the Philippines, 2008-15, is 124.50. All-time worst, 144 (2009). Source: Word Bank.